Last updated: January 28,2026
In the first few weeks of 2026, the international trade landscape has fundamentally shifted again. From sudden geopolitical tariff reversals in the Arctic to new national handling fees in Europe, e-commerce brands are facing a “whiplash” environment where landed costs can change overnight.
The Greenland Pivot: A Lesson in Geopolitical Volatility
On January 21, 2026, the administration abruptly reversed course on threatened 10% tariffs (set to rise to 25% in June) against eight NATO allies, including Germany, France, and the UK. While the “Greenland 8” are safe from these specific duties for now, the episode highlights a new reality: trade policy is now a primary tool for non-economic negotiations.
- The “Plan B” Strategy: Despite the Greenland reversal, White House advisors have confirmed a contingency plan to implement a 10% baseline tariff on all imports if the Supreme Court restricts current emergency (IEEPA) authorities.
- Actionable Strategy: Don’t assume that current reciprocal tariffs will remain in place. Model for a 10% “duty floor” for your landed cost calculations.
The IEEPA Decision: Preparing for the Legal Aftermath
The Supreme Court is set to rule on whether 133 billion in past tariffs were legally authorized under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
- The Legal Pivot: If the Court rules against the administration, expect a tactical shift toward Section 232 (National Security) or Section 301 tariffs, which are judicially harder to challenge.
- The Refund Trap: Refunds are not likely to be automatic. Importers must proactively document their entries and prepare to file formal protests within a strict 180-day window following liquidation.
EU Fragmentation: Summary of 2026 Trade Shifts
While the broader EU prepares to eliminate the duty de minimis entirely by July 2026, individual member states are moving faster with unilateral “Customs Safeguard” measures.
Italy
- Measure: National Handling Fee.
- Effective Date: January 1, 2026.
- Estimated Impact: €2 per parcel fee on non-EU e-commerce shipments valued under €150. This fee is applied per package, hitting high-volume, low-margin brands most heavily.
Romania
- Measure: National Handling Fee.
- Effective Date: January 1, 2026.
- Estimated Impact: 25 lei (~€5) per parcel fee for all low-value e-commerce imports originating outside the EU. Similar to Italy, this is a fixed levy per package regardless of the item’s weight or value.
European Union
- Measure: Universal Customs Duty.
- Effective Date: July 1, 2026.
- Estimated Impact: A universal €3 flat customs duty per item for parcels valued below €150. This is an interim step toward the full elimination of the de minimis threshold by 2028.
What This Means for You
Don’t treat each tariff or handling fee as an isolated incident. In 2026, the strategy must be Agility Over Prediction. Brands should audit their HS classifications now, stress-test their supply chains for a 10-15% duty environment, and move toward transparent, and consider dynamic pricing at checkout to protect their bottom line.
Passport helps merchants navigate trade and compliance changes with clarity and operational readiness. As this situation evolves, we’ll continue to provide practical guidance focused on duty exposure, compliance processes, and merchant impact.
FAQs
- What is the “Plan B” tariff strategy? If the Supreme Court invalidates the current IEEPA-based tariffs, the administration is prepared to immediately re-impose a baseline duty—reportedly at 10%—to avoid a sudden loss of trade protection and revenue.
- Are tariff refunds automatic? No. You must proactively file formal protests within 180 days of an entry’s liquidation to secure any potential refunds.
- How do I prepare for refund claims? Keep detailed records of entry numbers and duty amounts. Ensure you are enrolled in CBP’s Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) and the new Automated Clearing House (ACH), as CBP will only issue electronic refunds starting February 6, 2026.
- What happened with the “Greenland 8” tariffs? The threatened 10% tariffs on eight European nations were paused on January 21, 2026, after a security deal was reportedly reached, though major trade agreements remain frozen.
- What are the new fees in Italy and Romania? As of January 1, 2026, Italy charges a €2 fee and Romania a ~€5 (25 lei) fee per non-EU e-commerce parcel.
- What EU change is coming in July 2026? The EU will end the duty exemption for items under €150, replacing it with a universal €3 flat customs duty per item. Starting November 1, 2026, a harmonized Union handling fee is expected to enter into force.
Authored by Thomas Taggart
Head of Global Trade | Passport
Thomas Taggart is a cross-border commerce leader with more than 20 years of experience in international shipping and regulatory affairs. As the Head of Global Trade, Thomas helps ecommerce brands go global by simplifying international trade, tax, and product compliance issues. Prior to Passport, he brought international shipping solutions to market through multiple roles in UPS’s product development organization.